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Friday 3 July 2015

China market and Greece

Despite political involvement, central banking cutting the lending interest rate and lowering reserve ratio, China market just continue to plunge.  If I look at the SSE and A50 charting, it shows "fear". 

China is a non-mature market.  They are more retail investors/traders than the institution investors/traders.  That is the problem.  The greed of this retail investors/traders pushed the market up by 160% in 14 months time.  These two numbers were absolutely not acceptable.  Look at the China economic numbers, example of their GDP.  They just couldn't fix in on one and the other. 

Balancing all these plus what the charting is telling, SSE and A50 probably need a 30% correction.  Trade what I see.  Look for signal when it come close to this level.

Greece is a sideline player inside the Euro zone.  However, this player can become the key player inside the main show. 

The people of Greece vote and select their own government.  They expect this government to do something for them.  Greece borrowed money from IMF........  To receive the fund, Greece government needs to compromise some of their country policies.  If we look deeper, in fact certain percentage of this fund is just like left pocket in, right pocket out to origin.  Nevertheless, if Greece does not receive this fund from the creditor, what happen is bank, pensions fund........as what we are seeing right now. 

Greece PM Alexis Tsipias declared a referendum on 5-Jul to decide whether to accept or reject the creditor proposal debt settlement plan.  Tons of EU members and others described PM Alex Tsipias move as "gamble".

Let us look at Iceland.  Years back Iceland encountered similar problem.  The Iceland government wrote off their external debts through a call for referendum.  This external debts then featured as public debt instruments and sold it to British and Dutch banks and the respective public who were tempted by the high interest rate. 

Is Greece trying to apply what Iceland did?  Greece's main creditor is German bank.  The bigger concern over here is - if Greece will to leave the Euro zone upon debt default, others may follow as and when they are unable to repay their debt.  By then, people may lost confident on EU and the EURO may become historical.

Let's see how things go over this Sunday.  On guard and monitor the situation. 

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